A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate

نویسندگان

  • Caspar M. Ammann
  • Gerald A. Meehl
  • Warren M. Washington
  • Charles S. Zender
چکیده

[1] A new monthly volcanic forcing dataset is included in a coupled GCM for a more physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol history from explosive volcanism. The volcanic forcing is different from previous versions in that there is an individual evolution of the aerosol for each event. Thus the seasonal and latitudinal dependence of the volcanic aerosol can affect global climate in a more realistic way prior to the satellite period, compared to earlier volcanic forcing datasets. Negative radiative forcing from volcanic activity is greatest in the early 20th century prior to 1915 and in the late 20th century after 1960. The combination of volcanic and solar forcing contributes to an early-20th century warming, followed by relative cooling in late 20th century. Consequently, the addition of natural forcing factors to the anthropogenic GHG forcing in late 20th century is required to simulate the observed late 20th century warming.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation?

[1] In many climate model simulations using realistic, time-varying climate change forcing agents for the 20th and 21st centuries, the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in the 21st century, with little change in the 20th century. Here we use a comprehensive climate model to explore the impact of various climate change forcing agents on the THC. We conduct ensembles of integr...

متن کامل

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model.

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether...

متن کامل

Twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing

[1] We present results from a series of ensemble integrations of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model for the period 1865–1997. Each ensemble consists of three integrations initialized from different points in a long-running GFDL R30 coupled model control simulation. The first ensemble includes time-varying forcing from greenhouse gases only. In the remaining three ensembles, forcings from a...

متن کامل

A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report

In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are ...

متن کامل

Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity

[1] Climate forcing and climate sensitivity are two key factors in understanding Earth’s climate. There is considerable interest in decreasing our uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This study explores the role of these two factors in climate simulations of the 20th century. It is found that the total anthropogenic forcing for a wide range of climate models differs by a factor of two and that ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2003